Venture market in Russia: results and forecasts

The Analytical Center of the Moscow Innovation Cluster, with participation from KAMA FLOW, has prepared a study of the Russian venture market for the first half of 2025.

 

Key highlights from the report:

• Investment volume grew by 81% to $83 million, but the number of deals decreased by 29%.


• The average deal size doubled—investors are putting more capital into fewer projects.


• Later stages (B, C+) are prioritized: investment volume at these stages rose by 90% to $63 million. Investors are choosing less risky and more mature companies.


• Moscow leads with 52% of all investments ($42.9 million), but St. Petersburg showed explosive growth thanks to several large deals.


• IT and AI dominate—64% of investee companies are from the tech sector, and 55% work with artificial intelligence.


• Business angels remain key players in launching new projects.

Expert commentary:

Pavel Okhonin, partner at KAMA FLOW: "Corporate software, industrial digitalization—including industrial robotics—digital medicine, and industrial AI applications are key growth areas. The GenAI market is still taking shape, but major ecosystems are already building strategies for pervasive AI transformation."

According to him, the SEED strategy is shifting—startups and investors today must plan for a longer burn period and consider crisis scenarios where the next round may come later than expected: "This trend may persist for some time, but if negative factors subside and the market revives, expectations on both sides will become more optimistic, and deal sizes at early stages will return to more natural levels."

Collective investments are equity deals in which private investors participate through investment platforms, brokers, clubs (syndicates), or closed-end mutual funds managed by management companies. The main risks in this segment are:

• Overvaluations—multiples in collective deals are 1.5 times higher than at IPO.


• Conflict of interest—organizers often inflate company valuations to receive higher commissions.


• Unrealistic promises—some platforms advertise returns of 60% or more.

 

Conclusion

The market is recovering after the downturn, but has become more selective. Investors prefer fewer deals with bigger ticket sizes, and the focus has shifted toward B2B, AI, and later stages.

 

Read the full study at the link.