Capital structure has become a key factor in business valuation in 2026
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KAMA FLOW partner Kirill Tishin spoke at the Venture Day conference with a presentation titled “Money, Valuations, and Capital Structure in 2026.” He explained how investor behavior has changed recently and why simple growth is no longer sufficient for entrepreneurs to attract funding.
Key takeaways from the presentation:
• There is still a large amount of capital in the Russian economy, but it has become less accessible, changing the rules of the game for startups.
• Capital structure is becoming a factor of investment attractiveness on par with product, market, and team.
• Most entrepreneurs consider selling their business or raising investment, but fail to build processes aligned with this goal, leading to a mismatch between valuation expectations and reality.
• A common mistake is choosing the wrong type of financing at the current stage: giving up equity too early or, conversely, taking on debt before the business is ready to service it.
• The main capital-raising instruments are equity financing and debt, each affecting growth and control over the business differently.
• Tech companies in developed markets follow a sequential path—from early-stage venture capital to later-stage investments, and then to M&A deals or going public. Russian entrepreneurs are still relatively inactive in working with investors, partly due to low levels of trust in the market.
• Valuations of tech companies are becoming more conservative—the market is shifting from pitch-driven narratives to financial models and predictable metrics.
• At the same time, the venture market in Russia continues to develop, and modern tech entrepreneurs need to think in terms of capital strategy and investor relations.
• In M&A deals, the share of hybrid instruments is growing—such as earn-outs, vendor loans, and acqui-hires—reflecting investors’ desire to share risks with teams.
• The trend toward investment in artificial intelligence is strengthening and will continue to accelerate.
📌 Fundamentally, the market is cleansing itself, creating opportunities for truly strong teams with sustainable business models, clear unit economics, and transparent growth trajectories.